Idalia was a Category 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on early Tuesday Eastern time, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane had sustained winds of 75 miles per hour. Idalia is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico, where it will most likely strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall in Florida early Wednesday. Follow our coverage here.
Tropical-storm-force winds typically arrive as weather conditions begin to deteriorate, and experts say their estimated arrival time is a good deadline for completing storm preparations and evacuating if asked to do so.
Arrival times and likelihood of damaging winds
Idalia is the ninth named storm to form in the Atlantic in the year 2023.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in late May that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, which is a “near-normal” amount. On August 10, NOAA officials changed their estimate, putting the number of storms between 14 and 21.
After two very busy hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, when analysts ran out of names and had to use backup lists, there were 14 named storms in 2017. In 2020, there were a record 30 named storms.
This year has a trend of El Nio, which started in June. Intermittent climate change can have big effects on weather all over the world, and it usually stops storms from forming in the Atlantic
In the Atlantic, El Nio causes more wind shear, which is when the speed and direction of the wind change from the ocean or land surface up into the air. For hurricanes to form, the weather needs to be calm, and greater wind shear makes it less likely that this will happen. (In the Pacific, El Nio has the opposite effect, decreasing wind shear.)
At the same time, this year’s higher sea surface temperatures pose a number of dangers, such as the possibility of making storms worse.
Notes and sources
Tracking map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: Map shows odds of at least 5%. The forecast is for the five days that start three hours before the latest time and position of the storm.
Table of arrivals Sources: New York Times study of National Hurricane Center data (arrival times), U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth (geographic locations), and Google (time zones). Keep in mind: The table shows when tropical storm-force winds are expected to reach certain places if they are expected to reach those cities. “Earliest possible” times are times when there is at least a 10% chance that winds from a tropical storm will arrive at that time. “Most likely” times are times when there is an equal chance that tropical storm-force winds will come before or after the time shown.
Stay tuned to our website Usacharged.com for more updates.
